Tuesday, January 5, 2010

What to watch for, things that I am sure will happen in the next 10 years.

To compliment last week's article here are some predictions to look forward to in the near future.

1. Paper money will start to lose it's value, as money begins to convert to electronic currency, and checks will cease to exist altogether. -This is not that hard to figure out, is it? First off, one has to wonder, who still uses checks and what are they used for? The people who use checks are usually 45 or older. This age group will continue to get older and as they get older, they will be buying less and less, which will decrease the number of checks in circulation. Now why do we use checks? Mainly to mail our bills, but the amount of bills being paid through the mail will continue to decrease as more and more people discover the benefits of paying their bills online. So with no checks, people will be forced to switch to their debit cards for big transactions, a switch that millions of Americans have already made.

2. Twitter will last longer than both Myspace and Facebook. -Yes, I know that Facebook has 350 million followers which, at the best, is only triple of what Twitter has right now. The technology of Twitter will succeed though, as more and more people adopt this technology to share stories and various other forms of information. Before anybody says it, I also know that the current form of Twitter does not bring in the revenue that both Myspace/Facebook has, but I stand by the fact that Twitter (in some form. Being bought out is a possible option.) will last longer in some form, as people continue to want to reach out the producers of their loved products. What will happen to Myspace/Facebookthough, is up to debate? They will survive in some form, but Myspace is already a shell of it's formal self and it will be interesting what Facebook will do in the future, as it already has the backlash of the changing of the privacy statement.

3. More than 50% of people will own a smart phone. -I do not think I need to argue this one, do I? More and more people are looking to connect to the Internet on the go and the smart phone is just the next branch of the portable computer.

4. Google will be the new Microsoft and have to be split up after succeeding in cloud computing. -Many people are currently predicting the fall of Google for various reasons. It will only be a matter of time before the company is split up for whatever reason, the real question is, when will it happen. I believe in next 3-5 years, as cloud computing catches on Google will reach it's zenith point, however I think that this will ultimately be it's final downfall. Many people will adopt cloud computing and as people do, Google will be the forefront leader in it and we will all hear the chants of "Monopoly!" coming from it's competitors. This chant will be all the government needs in breaking up a company that it has had it's eyes on for awhile.

5. Only a few newspapers will exist in America. -No matter, what Murdock has to say about it, this will happen. The newspaper industry is currently fighting a battle it cannot win and one that it will eventually lose. A few publishers will stay once the fire dies including the New York Post and Wall Street Journal among others, but many others will perish.

6. The kindle will replace the newspaper. -This might be a stretch...but hear me out on it. Imagine a whole newspaper being sent directly to your kindle every morning when you wake up. It will still give you the solid form of "the newspaper" that you want to read, but it will eliminate the cost of paper and ink. The kindle is still a new device to many people, however with the reveal of the Apple kindle this will surely change.

7. Libraries will evolve and offer direct download of their books, among other things. -Go into a library and tell me right now, tell me the ratio of people in there for a book vs. the people in there to use the Internet. Nobody wants to get out any more and despite the law suites that Google is currently suffering through, all of our classics will one day be online in some fashion. The kindle and Apple's rival kindle(which is to be announced this week), are just the start of what will be a very different library experience.

8. Apple will be left scratching it's head, after a handful of defeats. -I love Apple, do not get me wrong. One of my resolutions in my New Years' column was to buy an Mac. But with Google's recent Droid phones and the upcoming Nexus One, they will soon find a true competitor in the cell phone market and in the next few days Apple plans on launching their own version of the Kindle. I do not believe that Apple, will ever lose it's brand prescience in the market, especially with the success of Itunes, but product line...I think Apple is going to start worrying.

9. The Video game market will start to decline as more and more people start to use their smart phone for gaming. -Why own a video game system, when your phone can do the same thing? Apple has said that the next version of the Iphone, will be designed to increase the gaming capacity of the phone and why not? With smart phones becoming more predominate(see prediction no. 3) people are going to start looking at the Iphone has a possible gaming device, with the millions of games available for it. The handheld market has been a successful market and one that video game super-giant Nintendo has made successful in, in the previous years. So why not try and capitalize on it?

10. %50 percent of movies will now be 3d. Regular 2D movies will go straight to the consumer. -Avatar has now topped one billion dollars worldwide and if there is anything Hollywood likes to do, it's it likes to try and recreate success. Avatar will probably not become the biggest grossing movie of all time, but it has showed us the future of movie making. Movie theaters will soon be not just a place to see a new movie, but a place to experience something different altogether. Movies will soon be made and distributed directly through Youtube and Itunes, the vehicles for many modern film makers today.

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